Earnings Chatter

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

At a glance: 28 S&P 500 names report today — headlined by Alphabet and Tesla after the close, IBM's post-preannouncement reset also tonight, Texas Instruments and ServiceNow rounding out the after-close slate, and Philip Morris, GE Vernova and AT&T before the open.

The tape ahead

Eight marquee names tonight and this morning, with two names carrying outsized narrative weight beyond their earnings: IBM, still digesting its July 14 guidance reset, and GE Vernova, whose backlog has become one of the market's cleanest AI-power-demand proxies.

Alphabet (GOOGL), after the close. The debate is two-sided: whether Google Cloud's backlog keeps converting to revenue at margin as AI-infrastructure capex climbs, and whether Search/YouTube ad demand holds up as the company leans harder into AI Overviews and AI Mode monetization — with early commentary on external TPU capacity sales as a newer swing factor. The regulatory overhang persists: both Google and the DOJ/state AGs have cross-appealed the Search antitrust remedies ruling, with appellate arguments not expected until late 2026/2027, so it stays a background risk rather than a near-term operational one. A 100% historical beat rate and a 94.3% last surprise are the backdrop; the 4.28% implied move sits well above the 1.52% historical average print-day move, so the options market is bracing for more than Alphabet's own history suggests. Consensus EPS of $2.89 compares to $5.11 last quarter (57% of that figure) — a sequential-looking step-down that owes more to the lumpiness of GAAP mark-to-market gains on Alphabet's equity investments than to any change in the underlying ad or cloud businesses; measured against its 34.4% one-year EPS CAGR, the operating trend has been strong. IG International preview

Tesla (TSLA), after the close. Automotive gross margin ex-credits is the central question — deliveries beat, but whether that volume drops through to margin or gets absorbed by pricing and mix is unresolved, and free cash flow is the second watch item as capex ramps simultaneously across Optimus, AI data centers and Cybercab. Robotaxi expansion (new Tampa/Orlando service, a larger Austin zone) continues, but the unsupervised fleet remains a small fraction of Waymo's Texas footprint and Tesla has a multi-quarter history of missing its own robotaxi timelines — a credibility thread investors keep pulling on. The 38% beat rate is the softest of today's cohort, and the 6.3% implied move dwarfs the 1.53% historical average, the richest implied-vs-realized gap of the group. Consensus EPS of $0.54 implies sequential growth versus last quarter's $0.41 (131% of it), even as the 1-year and 3-year EPS CAGRs (-47.2%, -33.3%) show the multi-year margin compression that's driving today's debate; the 5-year CAGR (+38.3%) is still positive over the longer window. Electrek preview

Philip Morris (PM), pre-open. IQOS volume and share momentum (with Japan flagged as decelerating on excise-driven pricing) and whether ZYN shipments have normalized back in line with underlying consumption are the swing factors, as smoke-free products approach roughly half of the business. The FDA's late-June Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorization for 20 ZYN variants — the first such order for nicotine pouches — is a genuine tailwind into the print, though some coverage flags ZYN ceding share to competitors in recent months. A 100% beat rate and 7.07% last surprise are the track record; unusually, the 5.34% implied move sits just below the 5.72% historical average, making this one of the few names priced cheap relative to its own history today. Consensus EPS of $2.05 is modestly above last quarter's $1.96 (105% of it); the 60.6% one-year EPS CAGR is well ahead of the 3/5/10-year rates (7.7%/7.1%/5.1%), suggesting this year's growth rate reflects an easy prior-year comparison more than a step-change in the underlying business. PMI press release (FDA MRTP order)

GE Vernova (GEV), pre-open. Backlog conversion and order momentum in Power (gas turbines) and Electrification are the metrics to watch, alongside whether management raises full-year guidance again after doing so last quarter. The AI-power-demand narrative keeps building — a Microsoft/Joulent data-center power venture, turbine supply tied to hyperscaler build-outs, and continued BWRX-300 small modular reactor progress — and the live debate is whether that story is still under-appreciated or now priced in. The 62% beat rate is softer than the growth narrative might suggest, with a 20.38% last surprise; the 7.68% implied move sits above the 5.51% historical average. Consensus EPS of $3.18 implies a large sequential step-up from last quarter's $2.01 (158% of it), and the 216.9% one-year EPS CAGR reflects the speed of that inflection off a thin base — the company's post-spinoff history is too short for a 3/5/10-year comparison. CNBC on GE Vernova/AI data-center demand

Texas Instruments (TXN), after the close. The question is durability: last quarter's steep industrial, automotive and data-center acceleration in analog/embedded — is it a genuine cyclical recovery or a post-inventory-correction restocking bounce? Sell-side estimates have been revised up into the print, and 2026 capex guidance has reportedly been dialed back from the prior buildout pace, read by some as increased capital discipline. A 75% beat rate and 22.76% last surprise are the backdrop; the 9.24% implied move against a 1.54% historical average is the widest implied-vs-realized gap of today's group. Consensus EPS of $1.94 implies sequential growth versus last quarter's $1.68 (115% of it); the 1-year EPS CAGR (4.9%) and 3-year (-16.6%) still reflect the recent downturn, with the 10-year rate (6.7%) the more representative long-run figure. TIKR on the 2026 analog recovery

IBM, after the close — the most consequential print of the night for reasons beyond the numbers. IBM pre-announced preliminary Q2 results on July 14 guiding below prior Street expectations, tied partly to slower AI-related spending among its own customers, and the stock had its worst single-day drop in decades on the news. Tonight fills in the detail behind that shortfall: mainframe (z-series) cycle softness against whatever offset Software and Consulting can provide. Multiple plaintiffs' firms have since opened securities-investigation notices examining whether IBM's April guidance and confidence statements were misleading given the July reset — a live litigation overhang distinct from the operating story, against which sits a newer, more constructive thread: a June partnership with Google Cloud embedding Gemini into IBM Consulting's watsonx practice. A 100% historical beat rate and 5.45% last surprise are the pre-reset track record; the 6.24% implied move against a tiny 0.88% historical average is an extreme gap, pricing in far more than IBM's typically placid prints. Consensus EPS of $2.93 implies a large sequential step-up from last quarter's $1.91 (154% of it) — a seasonal pattern for IBM as much as anything else. Barchart on the pre-announcement sell-off

AT&T (T), pre-open. Postpaid phone and fiber net-add momentum, and whether "Advanced Connectivity" (fiber, fixed wireless, postpaid) revenue growth extends the recovery of the last several quarters, are the core watch items, alongside fiber build pace toward the company's 40-million-location target. The big recent strategic development is the roughly $23B EchoStar spectrum purchase, FCC-approved in May, alongside a reported AT&T/T-Mobile/Verizon satellite-connectivity joint venture framed partly as a hedge against Starlink direct-to-device competition — a threat some coverage argues is overstated. A 75% beat rate and a modest 3.42% last surprise are the backdrop; the 4.93% implied move sits above the 3.14% historical average. Consensus EPS of $0.59 is essentially flat versus last quarter's $0.57 (103% of it); the 10-year EPS CAGR (2.6%) is the more representative growth rate for a mature telecom than the 101.2% one-year figure, which reflects an unusually depressed year-ago base. Telecompetitor on the FCC spectrum approval

ServiceNow (NOW), after the close. Subscription revenue and cRPO growth holding their guided pace is the baseline test; the more forward-looking swing factor is Now Assist/AI Pro Plus adoption, which the Street is using as a proxy for whether ServiceNow's agentic-AI monetization is working in a three-way platform race against Salesforce's Agentforce and Microsoft's Copilot Studio/Agent 365. Q1 was a clean beat across subscription revenue, cRPO and margin, which raises the bar tonight. A 100% beat rate carries an unusually thin 0.39% last surprise — the smallest cushion in today's cohort — and the 12.0% implied move is the largest of the group against a 2.74% historical average, the richest absolute pricing today. Consensus EPS of $0.86 implies a sequential step-down from last quarter's $0.97 (88% of it), a deceleration that sits inside an otherwise strong growth trend (73.6% and 70.1% on the 3- and 5-year EPS CAGRs). ServiceNow Q1 2026 results (newsroom)

Also reporting today

Twenty more S&P names round out the day, led by rails (CSX), exchanges (CME), and a cluster of REITs (AVB, EQR, CCI) and financials (MCO, NTRS, RJF).

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

A broad beat streak among yesterday's 14 previewed names — eleven of fourteen topped consensus — but reactions were mixed to poor outside the two biggest surprises. 3M was the standout, beating by 6.84% and gaining 9.08% on a raised full-year guide. General Motors (+4.14%) and Hasbro (+7.1%) also beat and traded up. On the other side, Danaher missed by 5.83% and fell 14.03%, the worst move of the group, while MSCI came in essentially in line (-0.51%) yet still dropped 11.77% — the widest gap between the reported number and the stock reaction this week. Northrop Grumman (+12.68% surprise, -3.05% reaction), Synchrony (+21.83%, -1.78%) and Equifax (+2.28%, -6.7%) round out a pattern of solid beats meeting skeptical tapes.

Rest of the week

Thursday is the peak of the week at 32 names, led by Intel, RTX, T-Mobile and Thermo Fisher, with a heavy industrials/rail cluster (Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, Honeywell) and defense read-across from tonight's GE Vernova alongside Lockheed Martin. Friday tapers sharply to six names topped by Exxon, American Express and Verizon — the latter a direct read against this morning's AT&T print.

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.