At a glance: 6 S&P 500 names report today, all before the open — Moderna, Humana and Vistra lead, with PPL, Franklin Resources and Charter Communications completing the lineup.

Reported EPS for 2 names in today's scorecard reflects the earnings calendar's headline figure rather than a basis confirmed comparable to consensus, so no year-on-year comparison is shown for those names.

The tape ahead

Moderna reports before the open, with the debate centered on how much longer declining COVID-vaccine demand keeps eroding the top line before the newer respiratory portfolio — RSV vaccine mRESVIA and the flu-combination program — and a double-digit round of headcount cuts and R&D program wind-downs can stabilize the bottom line. Consensus EPS of -$1.25 (range -$3.28 to -$0.80 across just 16 estimates) compares against a year-ago loss of $0.51, so there is no clean year-on-year read on EPS; revenue consensus of $890.2M is down 12.4% YoY, continuing the multi-year unwind of pandemic-era volumes. Margins in the last reported quarter show how unsettled the cost base still is: gross margin held at 35.0% (up a sharp 180.5 points versus the quarter before), while net margin printed at a stark -546.9% (down another 201.6 points) — a function of the litigation and inventory charges Moderna has been absorbing as it resizes the business, not a read on steady-state unit economics. The 8.3% implied move is roughly double Moderna's own 4.1% realized-move average, a rich straddle even against an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters and a 4.3% surprise last time out. Read-across extends to the broader vaccine-makers group, where Moderna's commentary on flu-season uptake and pipeline prioritization is watched as a read on how the category reprices beyond COVID.

Humana reports before the open, and the print lands one month after CMS's October release of 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings showed Humana's largest contract swinging back to four stars — 95% of its MA members now sit in plans rated four stars or higher for 2027, up from just 20% for 2026 — setting up a meaningful quality-bonus tailwind for 2028. Today's quarter itself still carries the damage from the earlier downgrade: consensus EPS of -$1.00 (range -$1.16 to -$0.60) against a year-ago profit of $3.24 is a swing to loss, the kind of comparison the data flags as resting on an unusual base, and here that shift traces directly to the bonus-payment hit rather than any deterioration in enrollment. Revenue consensus of $40.89B is up 25.2% YoY as Medicare Advantage membership keeps growing even as margins compress — management's own target is a 3% Medicare Advantage margin by 2028, the yardstick this print will be read against. Net margin in the last reported quarter was a thin 1.7%, down 1.3 points versus the prior quarter. The 6.5% implied move sits modestly above Humana's own 3.8% realized average, against a strong 88% beat rate and an 8.8% surprise last time out. Read-across lands directly on Cigna, which beat cleanly on both lines in this week's scorecard on the same PBM and Medicare Advantage cost trends, and the gap between Humana's deeply negative trailing EPS growth (1-year -1.5%, 3-year -23.7%, 5-year -17.2%) and the forward-looking ratings reversal is exactly what today's print will be judged against.

Vistra reports before the open, with the central question whether softer ERCOT power-forward prices — which pushed management's 2027 outlook toward the low end of its range last quarter — have stopped sliding, and whether the data-center and nuclear contracting pipeline, including a 20-year, 1,200-megawatt power purchase agreement tied to the Comanche Peak plant, is converting into contracted earnings fast enough to offset that pressure. Consensus EPS of $2.43 spans an unusually wide $0.41-$3.06 range across just 5 estimates (up 38.9% YoY); revenue consensus of $5.98B is up 20.3% YoY. Margins compressed in the last reported quarter — gross margin down 8.1 points to 34.6%, net margin down 10.7 points to 7.6% — underlining how much this name's quarterly results still swing with power-price timing. The 6.6% implied move is more than 2.5 times Vistra's own 2.6% realized-move average, against the weakest track record of today's six names: a 25% beat rate over the last eight quarters and a heavy 54.2% miss last time out. Read-across is direct to PPL, reporting the same morning on a similar data-center-driven load story, though PPL's regulated-utility model carries a different risk profile than Vistra's merchant exposure to spot power prices.

PPL Corporation reports before the open, with the debate centered on whether its Pennsylvania data-center pipeline — now more than 31 gigawatts of advanced-stage projects, with over 11 gigawatts under signed agreements — is converting into the large-load tariff structure and rate-case outcomes management needs to protect its 6-8% long-term EPS growth target. Consensus EPS of $0.53 sits in a tight $0.50-$0.55 range across 14 estimates (up 10.4% YoY); revenue consensus of $2.42B is up 8.1% YoY — both more modest than PPL's own 1-year (+32.4%) and 3-year (+15.7%) EPS CAGRs, pointing to a quarter tracking below its recent pace even as the data-center pipeline builds. Margins ticked higher on the gross line in the last reported quarter (up 0.7 points to 44.6%) while net margin fell 5.4 points to 10.9%. The nearest expiry is the November monthly, so the 4.6% straddle spans about two weeks rather than the print alone; PPL's own 38% beat rate over the last eight quarters and a 4.0% miss last time out are the more useful guide to what today might bring. Read-across is direct to Vistra, reporting the same morning on the same data-center-driven load theme.

Franklin Resources reports before the open to close out its fiscal fourth quarter, with the debate whether net inflows — which have already turned sharply positive ex-Western Asset this year — keep accelerating enough to confirm the turnaround the Street has started pricing in, after assets under management climbed to a record near $1.8 trillion and the stock drew a ratings upgrade earlier this year on improving flows. Consensus EPS of $0.77 sits in a tight $0.73-$0.81 range across 10 estimates (up 14.9% YoY); revenue consensus of $2.42B is up 3.3% YoY. Margins in the last reported quarter: gross margin down 1.5 points to 80.1%, net margin up 0.7 points to 11.7%. The nearest expiry is the November monthly, so the 6.4% straddle spans about two weeks rather than the print alone; Franklin's own 62% beat rate over the last eight quarters and an 8.3% surprise last time out are the more relevant guide. Read-across is to the broader active asset-manager group, where ETF and SMA platform growth is the common theme peers are being read against, with continuing outflows at Western Asset the lingering drag the Street still wants to see shrink further.

Charter Communications reports before the open in its first full quarter with Cox Communications consolidated — the $34.5B deal closed in August — so the print is as much about integration (targeting roughly $500M of cost synergies within three years) and the pace of broadband-subscriber stabilization across the combined base as it is a clean read on legacy Charter's own trends, which have shown broadband losses widening even as mobile-line growth has outperformed. Consensus EPS of $8.93 spans a wide $7.95-$9.74 range across just 4 estimates — one of the thinner coverage counts in today's lineup (up 7.1% YoY); revenue consensus of $14.92B is up 9.2% YoY, though the Cox consolidation makes that comparison less clean than usual. Margins ticked lower on the gross line in the last reported quarter (down 0.9 points to 55.9%) while net margin improved a point to 9.6%. The 11.7% implied move is the richest of today's six names and runs modestly above Charter's own 9.9% realized-move average, against a 62% beat rate and a 5.9% surprise last time out — a setup that reflects both integration uncertainty and Charter's history of sharp post-print reactions. Read-across: with buybacks paused through the Cox close and expected to resume this quarter, capital-return timing is its own catalyst alongside the operating print, and the rest of the cable and broadband group will be read against whatever Charter says about competitive intensity from fiber and fixed wireless.

Scorecard — reported since we last wrote

Thirty-one names have reported since Thursday's edition, and today the reaction told a sharper story than the surprise itself. Four clean beats drew outsized sell-offs rather than rewards: Rockwell Automation beat consensus by 5.1% and still fell 14.2% — the sharpest divergence in the batch — while Zoetis (a 15.9% beat, -8.0%), Iron Mountain (a 4.9% beat, -11.1%) and Ralph Lauren (an 8.9% beat, -7.4%) all traded the same way, a reminder that a clean beat on an expensive or crowded name doesn't guarantee a positive reaction. Elsewhere the tape read more predictably: Airbnb's beat on both EPS and revenue lifted shares 11.0% after hours, Tapestry's 16.7% EPS beat added 7.1%, and Verisk's beat added 6.9%, while Monster Beverage's miss cost it 6.4% after hours. Cummins' in-line EPS came with a revenue miss and a 4.9% drop, and Camden Property Trust's outsized 171.4% EPS beat was paired with a revenue miss and produced no after-hours reaction at all — surprise direction and magnitude told two different stories on the same print. Global Payments' dead-flat, in-line EPS still cost the stock 1.2%, underscoring that in line is not the same as safe.

The week ahead

Next week's calendar reopens after today's thin docket. Monday is the heaviest day (seven names): Constellation Energy reports before the open, consensus $3.88 (up 27.6% YoY) and a 9.0% implied move — the week's marquee data-center-power name — alongside KKR, consensus $1.58 (up 12.1% YoY, 6.0% implied move), and Occidental Petroleum after the close, consensus $1.47 (up 129.7% YoY). Take-Two Interactive (consensus -$0.86, still loss-making) and Skydance (consensus $0.20, swinging to a profit from a year-ago loss) round out Monday evening, with Ferguson Enterprises and NRG Energy also on the slate. TransDigm is the lone name Tuesday, consensus $12.21 (up 12.8% YoY) with a 5.8% implied move, and EchoStar reports Wednesday, consensus $0.84 against a year-ago loss of $4.16, with a 9.8% implied move. The week closes Thursday with the two semicap and networking names: Cisco, consensus $1.32 (up 32.0% YoY, 10.4% implied move), and Applied Materials, consensus $4.06 (up 87.1% YoY, 12.7% implied move) — the richest implied move of the week — both a direct read on AI-driven data-center capex following today's utility and power prints.

Informational only — not investment advice. Figures are consensus/estimates and option-implied values from public sources and may be revised.